diff --git a/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator.go b/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator.go
index b065fce3743..049aa61f31c 100644
--- a/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator.go
+++ b/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator.go
@@ -105,9 +105,11 @@ func (c *ReplicaCalculator) GetResourceReplicas(ctx context.Context, currentRepl
 
 	if len(missingPods) > 0 {
 		if usageRatio < 1.0 {
-			// on a scale-down, treat missing pods as using 100% of the resource request
+			// on a scale-down, treat missing pods as using 100% (all) of the resource request
+			// or the utilization target for targets higher than 100%
+			fallbackUtilization := int64(max(100, targetUtilization))
 			for podName := range missingPods {
-				metrics[podName] = metricsclient.PodMetric{Value: requests[podName]}
+				metrics[podName] = metricsclient.PodMetric{Value: requests[podName] * fallbackUtilization / 100}
 			}
 		} else if usageRatio > 1.0 {
 			// on a scale-up, treat missing pods as using 0% of the resource request
@@ -208,7 +210,7 @@ func (c *ReplicaCalculator) calcPlainMetricReplicas(metrics metricsclient.PodMet
 
 	if len(missingPods) > 0 {
 		if usageRatio < 1.0 {
-			// on a scale-down, treat missing pods as using 100% of the resource request
+			// on a scale-down, treat missing pods as using exactly the target amount
 			for podName := range missingPods {
 				metrics[podName] = metricsclient.PodMetric{Value: targetUtilization}
 			}
diff --git a/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator_test.go b/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator_test.go
index 2f401d8b7a6..5d915d1897d 100644
--- a/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator_test.go
+++ b/pkg/controller/podautoscaler/replica_calculator_test.go
@@ -1464,6 +1464,24 @@ func TestReplicaCalcMissingMetricsUnreadyScaleDown(t *testing.T) {
 	tc.runTest(t)
 }
 
+func TestReplicaCalcMissingMetricsScaleDownTargetOver100(t *testing.T) {
+	tc := replicaCalcTestCase{
+		currentReplicas:  4,
+		expectedReplicas: 2,
+		podReadiness:     []v1.ConditionStatus{v1.ConditionFalse, v1.ConditionTrue, v1.ConditionTrue, v1.ConditionTrue},
+		resource: &resourceInfo{
+			name:     v1.ResourceCPU,
+			requests: []resource.Quantity{resource.MustParse("1.0"), resource.MustParse("1.0"), resource.MustParse("2.0"), resource.MustParse("2.0")},
+			levels:   makePodMetricLevels(200, 100, 100),
+
+			targetUtilization:   300,
+			expectedUtilization: 6,
+			expectedValue:       numContainersPerPod * 100,
+		},
+	}
+	tc.runTest(t)
+}
+
 func TestReplicaCalcDuringRollingUpdateWithMaxSurge(t *testing.T) {
 	tc := replicaCalcTestCase{
 		currentReplicas:  2,